{ "schema": "buildkit-mtg-draft@1", "status": "published", "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "boilerplate": "BuildKit MTG Meta Hub is unofficial Fan Content permitted under the Wizards of the Coast Fan Content Policy. Not approved/endorsed by Wizards. Portions of the materials used are property of Wizards of the Coast. (c) Wizards of the Coast LLC.", "sets": [ { "set_code": "MSH", "set_name": "Marvel Super Heroes", "status": "published", "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "methodology": "BuildKit Draft Score = 0.75 * z(shrink(GIH WR, k=200)) + 0.25 * z(shrink(IWD, k=200)), computed from 17lands' public PremierDraft card_ratings (CC BY 4.0). shrink(x, n, k=200) = (n*x + k*mean(x over the pool)) / (n + k) is empirical-Bayes shrinkage toward the pool mean weighted by n = GIH game_count, so two cards with the SAME raw win rate but different sample sizes never tie: the low-sample card regresses harder toward the mean and cannot outrank the high-sample card. z(y) = (y - mean(y)) / population_stdev(y) is computed across EVERY card in the pool regardless of rarity -- rarity-neutral, no separate curve for commons vs mythics. Grade bands on the final score: S>=+1.25, A>=+0.5, B>=-0.25, C>=-1.0, D>=-2.0, else F; a card with no GIH data at all is 'unrated'. GIH WR = ever_drawn_win_rate, IWD = drawn_improvement_win_rate, ALSA = avg_seen, ATA = avg_pick, OH WR = opening_hand_win_rate -- 17lands' own field names, carried through unchanged. Per-color-pair rows use the identical formula computed over just that pair's card pool; a pair only publishes when 17lands' response for it is verifiably distinct from the set's overall response (seventeenlands.pair_data_is_distinct) -- 17lands' public no-auth endpoint does not currently filter by color pair for every set/pair combination, and a non-distinct pair is omitted rather than republished as fake per-pair signal. EARLY DATA -- upgrading as samples grow (153,122 total games so far). 17lands' color-pair filter returned no data distinct from the overall set this run, so pair_rows is empty rather than a duplicate of overall_rows.", "attribution": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "early_data": true, "total_games": 153122, "overall_rows": [ { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 1097, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "medium", "card": "Justice, Vance Astrovik", "color": "U", "rarity": "uncommon", "gih_wr": 0.62989973, "gih_games": 1097, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 389, "alsa": 2.2984615, "ata": 2.3989071, "iwd": 0.10221517000000002, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.6187790980948709, "iwd_shrunk": 0.08995561479201089, "draft_score": 2.722574825592375, "grade": "S" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 746, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "medium", "card": "Dark Deed", "color": "B", "rarity": "uncommon", "gih_wr": 0.62466488, "gih_games": 746, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 305, "alsa": 2.4631728, "ata": 2.96, "iwd": 0.09051034000000002, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.6105248275888453, "iwd_shrunk": 0.07617664327192189, "draft_score": 2.3034885272522496, "grade": "S" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 852, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "medium", "card": "She-Hulk, Jade Defender", "color": "G", "rarity": "uncommon", "gih_wr": 0.62089202, "gih_games": 852, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 357, "alsa": 3.17737, "ata": 3.5948553, "iwd": 0.07737514999999995, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.6088939994857867, "iwd_shrunk": 0.06698290750497915, "draft_score": 2.154000787897908, "grade": "S" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 2460, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "high", "card": "S.H.I.E.L.D. Deployment Drone", "color": "U", "rarity": "common", "gih_wr": 0.61341463, "gih_games": 2460, "oh_wr": 0.60233298, "oh_games": 943, "alsa": 3.5335401, "ata": 4.3546911, "iwd": 0.060094709999999996, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.6092317579770855, "iwd_shrunk": 0.05728397650196921, "draft_score": 2.065392158980005, "grade": "S" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 805, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "medium", "card": "Red Guardian, Super-Soldier", "color": "W", "rarity": "uncommon", "gih_wr": 0.6136646, "gih_games": 805, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 309, "alsa": 2.6674877, "ata": 3.0064935, "iwd": 0.061410500000000035, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.6025437705662166, "iwd_shrunk": 0.05370929691068469, "draft_score": 1.80404057862738, "grade": "S" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 550, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "medium", "card": "Hellcat, Undying Vigilante", "color": "G", "rarity": "uncommon", "gih_wr": 0.60727273, "gih_games": 550, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 243, "alsa": 5.1016181, "ata": 6.9803922, "iwd": 0.07366505000000001, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5940753172253969, "iwd_shrunk": 0.06007755786031747, "draft_score": 1.5853806846757381, "grade": "S" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 773, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "medium", "card": "Punishing Punch", "color": "G", "rarity": "uncommon", "gih_wr": 0.59767141, "gih_games": 773, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 312, "alsa": 2.9536842, "ata": 3.5958904, "iwd": 0.07250522000000004, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5894722367410562, "iwd_shrunk": 0.06227022194782952, "draft_score": 1.4534513512113958, "grade": "S" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 2107, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "high", "card": "Murdock's Crusade", "color": "W", "rarity": "common", "gih_wr": 0.59088752, "gih_games": 2107, "oh_wr": 0.57317073, "oh_games": 820, "alsa": 3.2212037, "ata": 3.9703608, "iwd": 0.05667699000000004, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5880175513910046, "iwd_shrunk": 0.05373247023200614, "draft_score": 1.3166365865847813, "grade": "S" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 981, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "medium", "card": "Falcon, Winged Wonder", "color": "U", "rarity": "uncommon", "gih_wr": 0.60040775, "gih_games": 981, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 376, "alsa": 3.1874311, "ata": 3.7732919, "iwd": 0.035190359999999976, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5931892372303537, "iwd_shrunk": 0.033077166854562294, "draft_score": 1.2773970920026911, "grade": "S" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 843, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "medium", "card": "Night Nurse, Healer of Heroes", "color": "W", "rarity": "uncommon", "gih_wr": 0.59311981, "gih_games": 843, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 338, "alsa": 2.7780518, "ata": 3.2555205, "iwd": 0.05972865999999999, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5863437068543123, "iwd_shrunk": 0.05263053813541523, "draft_score": 1.2490905307774904, "grade": "A" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 529, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "medium", "card": "Ultron Drone", "color": "", "rarity": "common", "gih_wr": 0.58979206, "gih_games": 529, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 206, "alsa": 6.9880899, "ata": 10.369527, "iwd": 0.08142066999999997, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5810102690796264, "iwd_shrunk": 0.06531402650924291, "draft_score": 1.200750780074592, "grade": "A" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 2268, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "high", "card": "H.E.R.B.I.E. Scout Unit", "color": "", "rarity": "common", "gih_wr": 0.58156966, "gih_games": 2268, "oh_wr": 0.55144509, "oh_games": 865, "alsa": 4.3363533, "ata": 5.9747126, "iwd": 0.05792942000000001, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5796420078197113, "iwd_shrunk": 0.055075492485914965, "draft_score": 1.049310759057437, "grade": "A" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 2189, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "high", "card": "We Say Thee Nay!", "color": "U", "rarity": "common", "gih_wr": 0.58519872, "gih_games": 2189, "oh_wr": 0.58079096, "oh_games": 885, "alsa": 3.9688918, "ata": 5.0060314, "iwd": 0.045534339999999895, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5829035096270605, "iwd_shrunk": 0.04362371751998237, "draft_score": 1.040788720790085, "grade": "A" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 1847, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "high", "card": "Aerial Doombot", "color": "U", "rarity": "common", "gih_wr": 0.58689767, "gih_games": 1847, "oh_wr": 0.58798883, "oh_games": 716, "alsa": 4.9370099, "ata": 6.7716437, "iwd": 0.03390431999999999, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5840529960474097, "iwd_shrunk": 0.0328107816000186, "draft_score": 0.9679498855990275, "grade": "A" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 2633, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "high", "card": "Hero in Training", "color": "W", "rarity": "common", "gih_wr": 0.58830232, "gih_games": 2633, "oh_wr": 0.57142857, "oh_games": 1050, "alsa": 2.7478261, "ata": 3.192389, "iwd": 0.026146780000000036, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5861477214892509, "iwd_shrunk": 0.025904293199872287, "draft_score": 0.9670983666428384, "grade": "A" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 905, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "medium", "card": "Ka-Zar of the Savage Land", "color": "G", "rarity": "uncommon", "gih_wr": 0.58895028, "gih_games": 905, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 364, "alsa": 2.6928658, "ata": 2.9438202, "iwd": 0.03671147000000008, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5833090405602241, "iwd_shrunk": 0.03417762103641463, "draft_score": 0.9570606520071201, "grade": "A" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 2129, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "high", "card": "Web Up", "color": "W", "rarity": "common", "gih_wr": 0.58102395, "gih_games": 2129, "oh_wr": 0.54353234, "oh_games": 804, "alsa": 2.304, "ata": 2.7150327, "iwd": 0.046928709999999985, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5790281133400805, "iwd_shrunk": 0.04484912601341265, "draft_score": 0.9233200931369342, "grade": "A" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 604, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "medium", "card": "Falcon's Wing Harness", "color": "U", "rarity": "uncommon", "gih_wr": 0.58112583, "gih_games": 604, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 234, "alsa": 4.275222, "ata": 5.6101083, "iwd": 0.06560625999999992, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5753190146008055, "iwd_shrunk": 0.054936034745320945, "draft_score": 0.9027514797370889, "grade": "A" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 1839, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "high", "card": "Cruel Alliance", "color": "B", "rarity": "common", "gih_wr": 0.57150625, "gih_games": 1839, "oh_wr": 0.53314528, "oh_games": 709, "alsa": 3.2553614, "ata": 4.1259259, "iwd": 0.07039759999999995, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5701601177876643, "iwd_shrunk": 0.06572024389173027, "draft_score": 0.8406990381132298, "grade": "A" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 646, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "medium", "card": "Asgardian Citadel", "color": "", "rarity": "common", "gih_wr": 0.58513932, "gih_games": 646, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 276, "alsa": 5.7175819, "ata": 8.2899729, "iwd": 0.033167990000000036, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5786719706135315, "iwd_shrunk": 0.030696113989643163, "draft_score": 0.7655181737641864, "grade": "A" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 777, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "medium", "card": "Okoye, Dora Milaje Leader", "color": "W", "rarity": "uncommon", "gih_wr": 0.58043758, "gih_games": 777, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 285, "alsa": 3.2228856, "ata": 3.8229508, "iwd": 0.039734060000000015, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5757998833971829, "iwd_shrunk": 0.03624949387434811, "draft_score": 0.7263300522966519, "grade": "A" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 739, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "medium", "card": "U.S.Agent, John Walker", "color": "WB", "rarity": "uncommon", "gih_wr": 0.57645467, "gih_games": 739, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 286, "alsa": 3.281746, "ata": 4.2756184, "iwd": 0.04530042999999995, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5724776225229473, "iwd_shrunk": 0.040489253104619864, "draft_score": 0.6584928627007934, "grade": "A" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 1025, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "medium", "card": "Lightning Strike", "color": "R", "rarity": "common", "gih_wr": 0.56780488, "gih_games": 1025, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 421, "alsa": 3.566315, "ata": 4.7259259, "iwd": 0.06601788999999991, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5661685619747328, "iwd_shrunk": 0.05894753317978613, "draft_score": 0.6369106310428688, "grade": "A" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 862, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "medium", "card": "Political Triumph", "color": "W", "rarity": "uncommon", "gih_wr": 0.57772622, "gih_games": 862, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 342, "alsa": 2.792752, "ata": 3.2724719, "iwd": 0.03562999999999994, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5739703277392161, "iwd_shrunk": 0.033197223065195895, "draft_score": 0.6334586312712549, "grade": "A" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 532, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "medium", "card": "Abomination, Terrifying Titan", "color": "RG", "rarity": "uncommon", "gih_wr": 0.57706767, "gih_games": 532, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 224, "alsa": 3.7419056, "ata": 5.0, "iwd": 0.044489769999999984, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5717984793156389, "iwd_shrunk": 0.03853954717928701, "draft_score": 0.61560248915987, "grade": "A" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 1977, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "high", "card": "Undercover Skrull", "color": "G", "rarity": "common", "gih_wr": 0.57764289, "gih_games": 1977, "oh_wr": 0.60240964, "oh_games": 830, "alsa": 3.5503026, "ata": 4.4671141, "iwd": 0.024500030000000006, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5758183187639171, "iwd_shrunk": 0.024335760314762565, "draft_score": 0.6041783399266303, "grade": "A" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 1811, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "high", "card": "Go Nuts!", "color": "G", "rarity": "common", "gih_wr": 0.573164, "gih_games": 1811, "oh_wr": 0.55680224, "oh_games": 713, "alsa": 4.0398119, "ata": 5.3264177, "iwd": 0.03721359000000002, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5716342567971395, "iwd_shrunk": 0.03577135871966093, "draft_score": 0.5815634862774016, "grade": "A" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 1724, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "high", "card": "Futurist Forge", "color": "U", "rarity": "common", "gih_wr": 0.56844548, "gih_games": 1724, "oh_wr": 0.54142857, "oh_games": 700, "alsa": 5.1549035, "ata": 7.1049046, "iwd": 0.05118659999999997, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.567337055061875, "iwd_shrunk": 0.04822665763785761, "draft_score": 0.5656585253326116, "grade": "A" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 810, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "medium", "card": "Agent Maria Hill", "color": "W", "rarity": "uncommon", "gih_wr": 0.57283951, "gih_games": 810, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 331, "alsa": 3.4677419, "ata": 4.2, "iwd": 0.04067577, "gih_wr_shrunk": 0.5698579104148986, "iwd_shrunk": 0.03711857880716643, "draft_score": 0.5358148832081728, "grade": "A" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 596, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "medium", "card": "HYDRA Infiltration", "color": "B", "rarity": "common", "gih_wr": 0.56711409, "gih_games": 596, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 246, "alsa": 7.2278732, "ata": 10.197138, "iwd": 0.06121786000000007, "gih_wr_shrunk": 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null, "oh_games": 118, "alsa": 2.0094787, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 167, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "low", "card": "Grim Reaper, Lethal Legionnaire", "color": "B", "rarity": "uncommon", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 167, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 67, "alsa": 5.9029666, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 427, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "medium", "card": "The Masters of Evil", "color": "B", "rarity": "uncommon", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 427, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 157, "alsa": 4.6879377, "ata": 6.3509615, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, 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"confidence": "low", "card": "Project Deathlok Soldier", "color": "B", "rarity": "common", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 249, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 102, "alsa": 7.8668697, "ata": 11.554493, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 169, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "low", "card": "Robot Domination", "color": "B", "rarity": "uncommon", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 169, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 61, "alsa": 6.0173653, "ata": 9.0346535, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 191, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "low", "card": "Ronin, Shadow Stalker", "color": "B", "rarity": "uncommon", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 191, "oh_wr": null, 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"sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 79, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Thunderbolts Conspiracy", "color": "B", "rarity": "rare", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 79, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 33, "alsa": 3.9152174, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 168, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "low", "card": "Too Evil to Stay Dead", "color": "B", "rarity": "uncommon", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 168, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 62, "alsa": 6.4144737, "ata": 9.6960784, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 408, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": 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"color": "R", "rarity": "rare", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 209, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 86, "alsa": 2.3083333, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 238, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "low", "card": "Hawkeye, Young Avenger", "color": "R", "rarity": "uncommon", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 238, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 95, "alsa": 5.2684102, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 229, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "low", "card": "Hawkeye's Bow", "color": "R", "rarity": "common", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 229, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 90, "alsa": 7.5049278, "ata": 11.166307, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 24, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Hex Magic", "color": "R", "rarity": "uncommon", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 24, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 12, "alsa": 8.0068457, "ata": 11.702703, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 37, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Hire a Crew", "color": "R", "rarity": "common", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 37, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 16, "alsa": 8.8450328, "ata": 12.81746, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 211, 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"oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 0, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 0, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Beast Within", "color": "G", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 0, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 0, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 11, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Defense of the Heart", "color": "G", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 11, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 5, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 2, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Force of Vigor", "color": "G", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 2, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 1, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 14, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Heroic Intervention", "color": "G", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 14, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 4, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 4, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Primal Vigor", "color": "G", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 4, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 3, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 10, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Rancor", "color": "G", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 10, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 4, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 3, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Steely Resolve", "color": "G", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 3, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 1, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 4, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Unnatural Growth", "color": "G", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 4, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 1, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 7, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Anthem of Champions", "color": "WG", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 7, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 1, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 15, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Aurelia, the Warleader", "color": "WR", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 15, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 6, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 9, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Black Panther, Wakandan King", "color": "WG", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 9, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 3, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 7, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Captain America, First Avenger", "color": "WUR", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 7, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 3, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 9, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Escape to the Wilds", "color": "RG", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 9, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 3, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 0, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Fight to the Death", "color": "WR", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 0, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 0, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 3, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Iron Man, Titan of Innovation", "color": "UR", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 3, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 1, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 0, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Privileged Position", "color": "WG", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 0, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 0, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 8, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Ravenous Tyrannosaurus", "color": "RG", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 8, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 4, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 1, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Storm, Force of Nature", "color": "URG", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 1, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 0, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 6, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Sundering Growth", "color": "WG", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 6, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 0, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 5, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Warleader's Call", "color": "WR", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 5, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 3, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 14, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Wolverine, Best There Is", "color": "RG", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 14, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 7, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 0, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Horn of Greed", "color": "", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 0, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 0, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 12, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Roaming Throne", "color": "", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 12, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 4, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" }, { "sources": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "sample_size": 12, "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "confidence": "sample", "card": "Sword of Fire and Ice", "color": "", "rarity": "mythic", "gih_wr": null, "gih_games": 12, "oh_wr": null, "oh_games": 5, "alsa": null, "ata": null, "iwd": null, "gih_wr_shrunk": null, "iwd_shrunk": null, "draft_score": null, "grade": "unrated" } ], "pair_rows": {} }, { "set_code": "SOS", "set_name": "Secrets of Strixhaven", "status": "unavailable", "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "methodology": "BuildKit Draft Score = 0.75 * z(shrink(GIH WR, k=200)) + 0.25 * z(shrink(IWD, k=200)), computed from 17lands' public PremierDraft card_ratings (CC BY 4.0). shrink(x, n, k=200) = (n*x + k*mean(x over the pool)) / (n + k) is empirical-Bayes shrinkage toward the pool mean weighted by n = GIH game_count, so two cards with the SAME raw win rate but different sample sizes never tie: the low-sample card regresses harder toward the mean and cannot outrank the high-sample card. z(y) = (y - mean(y)) / population_stdev(y) is computed across EVERY card in the pool regardless of rarity -- rarity-neutral, no separate curve for commons vs mythics. Grade bands on the final score: S>=+1.25, A>=+0.5, B>=-0.25, C>=-1.0, D>=-2.0, else F; a card with no GIH data at all is 'unrated'. GIH WR = ever_drawn_win_rate, IWD = drawn_improvement_win_rate, ALSA = avg_seen, ATA = avg_pick, OH WR = opening_hand_win_rate -- 17lands' own field names, carried through unchanged. Per-color-pair rows use the identical formula computed over just that pair's card pool; a pair only publishes when 17lands' response for it is verifiably distinct from the set's overall response (seventeenlands.pair_data_is_distinct) -- 17lands' public no-auth endpoint does not currently filter by color pair for every set/pair combination, and a non-distinct pair is omitted rather than republished as fake per-pair signal. This set's 17lands card_ratings response totalled 97 ever-drawn games this run -- below the 5,000-game publish floor, so no rows are graded.", "attribution": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "early_data": false, "total_games": 97, "overall_rows": [], "pair_rows": {} }, { "set_code": "TMT", "set_name": "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles", "status": "unavailable", "computed_at": "2026-07-11T07:02:08Z", "methodology": "BuildKit Draft Score = 0.75 * z(shrink(GIH WR, k=200)) + 0.25 * z(shrink(IWD, k=200)), computed from 17lands' public PremierDraft card_ratings (CC BY 4.0). shrink(x, n, k=200) = (n*x + k*mean(x over the pool)) / (n + k) is empirical-Bayes shrinkage toward the pool mean weighted by n = GIH game_count, so two cards with the SAME raw win rate but different sample sizes never tie: the low-sample card regresses harder toward the mean and cannot outrank the high-sample card. z(y) = (y - mean(y)) / population_stdev(y) is computed across EVERY card in the pool regardless of rarity -- rarity-neutral, no separate curve for commons vs mythics. Grade bands on the final score: S>=+1.25, A>=+0.5, B>=-0.25, C>=-1.0, D>=-2.0, else F; a card with no GIH data at all is 'unrated'. GIH WR = ever_drawn_win_rate, IWD = drawn_improvement_win_rate, ALSA = avg_seen, ATA = avg_pick, OH WR = opening_hand_win_rate -- 17lands' own field names, carried through unchanged. Per-color-pair rows use the identical formula computed over just that pair's card pool; a pair only publishes when 17lands' response for it is verifiably distinct from the set's overall response (seventeenlands.pair_data_is_distinct) -- 17lands' public no-auth endpoint does not currently filter by color pair for every set/pair combination, and a non-distinct pair is omitted rather than republished as fake per-pair signal. This set's 17lands card_ratings response totalled 156 ever-drawn games this run -- below the 5,000-game publish floor, so no rows are graded.", "attribution": [ "Win rates via 17lands.com public card ratings (CC BY 4.0)" ], "early_data": false, "total_games": 156, "overall_rows": [], "pair_rows": {} } ] }